Laojiao (000568) 2019Q3 review: slightly better than expected performance, maintain healthy and healthy growth, maintain buy

Event: The company released three quarterly reports, and realized revenue of 114 in the first three quarters.

7.7 billion, an increase of 23 in ten years.

9%, net profit attributable to mother 37.

9.5 billion, a year-on-year growth of 38%, deducting non-net profit of 37.

9.2 billion, an annual increase of 38.

23%; 34 in the third quarter alone.

6.4 billion, an increase of 21 in ten years.

86%, net profit attributable to mother 10.

4.5 billion, an annual growth of 35.

5%, deducting non-net profit 10.

6.4 billion, an increase of 39 in ten years.

72%, EPS is 0.

71 yuan.

In the 武汉夜网论坛 performance forecast, we forecast revenue growth of 25% and profit growth of 30% in the third quarter. The revenue is basically in line with expectations and the profit exceeds expectations.

Investment Ratings and Estimates: Maintain earnings forecasts and forecast EPS for 2019-2021.

18 yuan, 4.

02 yuan, 4.

85 yuan, an annual increase of 33.

5%, 26.

5%, 20.

7%, the current expected corresponding PE for 19-21 years is 27x, 21x, 18x, maintain BUY rating.

Since 2015, the company has maintained a compound revenue growth of about 25% and a profit of more than 30% for the past five years. It has achieved the goal of running as fast as possible under a healthy state. We recommend that the company ‘s logic be verified one by one.

We believe that Luzhou Laojiao is one of the companies whose fundamentals have changed substantially during the current cycle of the industry. The company has rebuilt an alternative channel model and sales system in the past 4 years, and clearly sorted out the five orders covering high, middle and lowProduct matrix, and continue to focus on building the brand strength of the dual brand of Guojiao 1573 and Luzhou Laojiao.

The company’s sales have basically completed the channel construction stage, with more emphasis on brand building and consumer cultivation.

The volume of Guojiao 1573 in high-end wine has exceeded the high point of the previous round. Special song 60 edition, cellar wine and old-fashioned special song and other high-priced products have steadily increased.

In the context of the industry’s squeezing competition, the company is forward-looking and pragmatic, capable of grasping the potential of the industry and achieving healthy, sustainable, and rapid growth.

Guojiao 1573 accurately grasped the rhythm of volume and price, driving overall growth in the third quarter.

Combined with channel feedback, we believe that the third quarter’s revenue growth is mainly driven by high-end wine 1573. Mid-range wine specials, especially old-time specials, have been replaced and raised prices. In the third quarter, the stocks are mainly digested, and the focus of the low-end Broad series is still being sorted out and streamlinedThe brand and warehouse age series have been in a state of combing for a long time and maintained a slight growth.

Guojiao 1573 accurately grasped the rhythm of volume and price this year. The channel realized distribution control through refinement and direct control, stable price order, and guaranteed channel profit. At the same time, it increased consumer ownership, increased the speed of sales, and continued to maintain rapid growth.

Different from last year, Guojiao started the payment collection rhythm this year, with few adjustments in May-July, adopting a small price follow-up strategy, and completing most of the payment collection tasks in advance with the expected price increase.

Combined with media reports, Guojiao Company informed in early August that it would only implement unscheduled prices after August 20, and the unscheduled price increased by 30 yuan. After entering September, it entered the state of cargo control, so that the Mid-Autumn National Day double festival had basically completed the task.The price fluctuates little, and the channel has a healthy growth of stable profits.

The approval price is kept in the range of 760-800 yuan, with an average of about 780 yuan.

We expect the growth of 1573 at the beginning of the year to remain around 30%, and it may restart in the third quarter.

  Special songs increase prices, accumulate potential energy, stand 200 price band.

In combination with channel feedback, the old and famous special song adopted a centralized payment strategy in the first half of this year. In the third quarter, it was mainly destocking and price appreciation. It is expected that the mid-range price with income in the third quarter will be basically stable.

In November, the 10th generation of time-honored special songs will be launched soon. The 9th generation dealers’ settlement price will be raised to 308 yuan, which is mainly used as a benchmark for the 10th price increase. The 10th generation special songs will be positioned at prices above 200 yuan.

Since the old time-honored brand has been positioned as a strong fragrance, since the implementation of the revival strategy, the positioning of Tetra has been very clear. The implementation of the strategy has been resolute. From the perspective of the consumption upgrade trend and the long-term size of the company’s product structure, the promotion of Tetra to 200+ price bands isMake the right choice.

The cash rebate is benign and the net interest rate has steadily increased.In the third quarter, the cash received from the sales of goods increased by 14%, and the net operating cash flow increased by 48%. The growth rate of cash repayments was slower than the income. The main reasons were: 1. The increase in the current advance receipt and the same period (15 at the end of the period).

The 900 million chain increased by 200 million compared with the same period last year.

100 million chain increased by 3.

200 million), 2. The decline in bills was smaller than in the same period last year (end bills receivable).

900 million chain down 5.

700 million, 19.

900 million chain down 1 billion).

The third quarter gross margin was 84.

2%, an increase of 2 per year.

7pct, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of high-end wines in the current period.

The sales expense ratio decreases by 0 every year.

58pct, the management expense rate decreased by 0.

3pct is mainly due to the refined management of the company and the improvement of cost efficiency.

Taxes and additional ten years in the third quarter increased by 1.

25%, but increased 29 in the first three quarters.

4%, taxes and surcharges in the first three quarters accounted for 12%, and the ratio reached 18 was a normal level.

The external operating expenses in the third quarter increased by 21 million each year, mainly due to the increase in external donations, which was a one-time impact.

Catalysts for continued performance: better-than-expected performance, core assumptions 无锡夜网 of price hikes for high-end wines: economic downturn affects overall demand for high-end liquors